Our football betting expert Jones Knows offers his insight ahead of the Premier League weekend and tips up a 20/1 treble.
There's always a temptation to latch onto the short-priced 'banker' in these Sunday spots but sometimes the market just gets a little carried away - and that looks the case here with Bournemouth. The Cherries are being priced up as if they're taking on a relegation-bound side with nothing about them. Yet Palace are organised, they're stubborn and they don't give much away.
The draw is often the most underrated outcome in football betting markets and that's where value can creep in, especially when the numbers start to back it up. We're seeing a bit of a draw surge in the Premier League right now, with 18 of the last 49 games finishing level, that's a 37 per cent strike-rate, comfortably above the norm.
Bournemouth have drawn six of their last eight games - they're becoming specialists in not quite getting the job done. Palace, meanwhile, have racked up 10 draws from 33 matches this season. The 3/1 with Sky Bet on the draw is a fantastic bet.
When you're assessing the player markets at this stage of the season, motivation and narrative can be just as powerful as the raw numbers and this is one where everything is aligning.
Bruno Fernandes to register an assist at 6/4 with Sky Bet looks a cracking play. Fernandes is sitting on 19 Premier League assists this season - just one shy of the all-time single-season record held by Thierry Henry (2002/03) and Kevin De Bruyne (2019/20).
Watching him recently, it's obvious he's actively looking to create rather than finish moves. His first instinct in and around the box is to slide passes, pick runners, and manufacture chances. That mindset is exactly what you want when backing assist lines.
At 6/4, you're getting a playmaker in elite form, with a clear target in sight, pulling the strings in a home environment where he thrives.
Everything points towards another assist being firmly on the agenda.
If it looks like relegation season, smells like a relegation season, quacks like a relegation season then it's probably a relegation season.
The footballing gods have made up their mind on Spurs it seems. That line of thinking was rubberstamped despite the 1-0 win at Wolves where they didn't play well.
That West Ham injury-time winner was a cruel one and yet more injuries to key players in Xavi Simons, their only real creative player in form, and Dominic Solanke, is making an already tough task even more difficult for Roberto De Zerbi.
But there is one place that still believes in this Tottenham team: the betting markets. And this really is great news as we can back Aston Villa at a staggering price at odds against of 21/20 with Sky Bet for the win.
The market has got too carried away by Spurs' need for the win and have glossed over the key factor in that they are an inferior team in every department.
Aston Villa at home under Unai Emery are so difficult to beat - this is a team that has beaten Man City, Arsenal and Man Utd at Villa Park this season. Beating Spurs should be a doddle.
Morgan Gibbs-White to score anytime at 100/30 with Sky Bet looks too big to ignore. The Forest playmaker is finishing the season like a man on a mission. Seven goals in his last seven Premier League appearances tells you everything you need to know about the level he's operating at right now. He's playing with freedom, conviction and, most importantly, end product - something that hasn't always been associated with his game.
With an international summer on the horizon, Gibbs-White is making a very loud case to Thomas Tuchel for inclusion in England's World Cup squad. That kind of motivation can elevate a player's output and it's clear he's taking on more responsibility in the final third, getting into scoring positions and finding sublime quality at the right time.
Manchester City have built their title push on fast starts. They don't ease into games - they suffocate them from the off. The numbers are pretty striking: nine goals scored and none conceded in the opening 15 minutes of matches this season. City have been ahead at half-time 21 times in the league - six more than Arsenal, who are next on the list. Second again. That gap tells you how consistently they're getting their noses in front early and, crucially, staying there.
At 6/5 with Sky Bet for Man City to be winning at half-time and full-time, you're getting a price on a pattern that's been repeating all season.
1pt treble on Jayden Bogle +2 fouls, a draw in Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace & Bruno Fernandes +1 assist (20/1 with Sky Bet)
